Techno-Economic Analysis of Photovoltaic Hydrogen Production Considering Technological Progress Uncertainty

The application of photovoltaic (PV) power to split water and produce hydrogen not only reduces carbon emissions in the process production but also helps decarbonize transportation, chemical, metallurgical industries through P2X technology. A techno-economic model must be established predict economics integrated PV–hydrogen technology at key time points future based on characteristics, variability, uncertainties this In study, we extracted comprehensive technical factors (including PV tracking system coefficient, conversion efficiency, electrolyzer degradation coefficient) an system. Then, constructed a (PVH2) model. We used levelized cost (LCOH) method estimate each major equipment item during project lifetime. combined PVH2 learning curve models determine trend developed two-dimensional Monte Carlo approach variation interval LCOH for projects 2030 2050, which described current variability with variable parameters uncertainty advancement uncertain parameters. results showed that most critical influencing are efficiency capital electrolyzer. China will drop CNY 18–32/kg by 8–18/kg 2050. combination is effective tool describe technologies technological progress.